MLB betting is probably the hardest sport to bet on. There are so many factors that effect each and every game. The unpredictable nature of sports betting is hard at the best of times but baseball presents much bigger challenges when searching for a winning pick or parlay.
I have spent years trying to master the ins and outs of MLB betting and I’ll have to be honest and say, there is no full proof system. That unfortunately doesn’t exist. But, you can increase your chances significantly by following these basic principles of the pitchers.
Why is the pitcher so important?
The pitcher is literally the difference from a team winning and losing. Most people betting on MLB games will not even place a bet without knowing the pitcher beforehand. It’s also why the pitcher is listed next to team on sportsbook lists.
A great pitcher is a great pitcher for a reason. They change games, read the game perfectly and are able to make it extremely difficult for the opposition to hit. If the batters are not hitting they are not making runs.
Reading Pitcher Information
What you see above is the standard pitcher information. I like to use MLB.com for this information as its the official source and it’s easy to read.
There are 2 parts of information to read and these make up the basic pitcher information. Let me explain to you how to read them;
Win – Loss Record
So, the number on the left is the amount of games they won when they were starting pitcher. The number on the right is how many games they have lost when being the starting pitcher.
This means that German of the Yankees has won 9 of his 11 games. Compare that to the 3 wins and 3 losses for Vargas, it gives a clear indication that we want to be taking the yankees for this games pick.
ERA – Earned Run Average
This is the average amount of runs the pitcher gives away each game.
This information is particularly helpful for over under total runs but it can also be useful for moneyline and run line. If a pitcher has a strong win record combined with a low ERA, that gives us the confidence to make that team the pick.
Pitcher Examples
Example 1:
Pitcher A – 8-1, 2.92
Pitcher B – 2-4, 5.77
Here it’s an obvious pick to take Pitcher on both the Moneyline and the Run Line. Pitcher A has a superior win ratio and doesn’t concede many runs on average. That combination is exactly what we’re looking for.
As for a pick on the over unders, I would be taking the over if the line was 8.5 or less.
Example 2:
Pitcher A – 3-4, 5.32
Pitcher B – 5-6, 3.46
This is a tough scenario for a moneyline pick… but it’s pretty good for a Run Line pick. The two pitchers are pretty close in their stats but Pitcher B is the pick for a bet on the Run Line (normally +1.5 Runs) as they give away the least runs on average.
The over under line is setup for a high score here also. I would be happy to take Over 10 or less on the game total runs.
I hope you enjoyed learning the pitcher basics and I’m sure this will help out massively when you making future baseball picks. Don’t forget, these are just starting points and there are other factors to consider but if you’re looking to make a quick judgment pick, this will help you out.
Have fun with your picks and stay lucky!
Josh
