BParlay have compiled some NFL MVP Betting predictions for our readers to review.
We still have over a month to go until training camp gets going in the NFL. While we pass the time, it’s a great opportunity to look at a few NFL futures worth consideration.
Today we’ll break down the odds to win the 2021 MVP. Who leads the way, who has won in the past, and which bets have some value. Let’s get to it.
Odds to Win NFL MVP
As of mid-June, here are how the top-15 odds to win NFL MVP look:
- Patrick Mahomes, +400
- Aaron Rodgers, +1000
- Josh Allen, +1200
- Tom Brady, +1200
- Lamar Jackson, +1600
- Matthew Stafford, +1600
- Russell Wilson, +1600
- Dak Prescott, +1700
- Kyler Murray, +2000
- Justin Herbert, +2000
- Ryan Tannehill, +3000
- Baker Mayfield, +3300
- Carson Wentz, +4000
- Christian McCaffrey +5000
- Derrick Henry, +5000
Mahomes significantly leads the way as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL on one of the best teams in the league. Rodgers, the 2020 winner, is second despite reports he refuses to play in Green Bay again.
As we’re about to see, this is a quarterback’s award, evidenced by the top-13 players all playing QB. Learn more about NFL Picks and Parlays on the BParlay educational resources.
Past 10 NFL MVP Winners
When considering betting on an award winner so far in advance, it’s good to take stock of past winners to pull out trends. The past ten NFL MVP winners, as follows:
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB
- 2019: Lamar Jackson, QB
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB
- 2017: Tom Brady, QB
- 2016: Matt Ryan, QB
- 2015: Cam Newton, QB
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB
- 2013: Peyton Manning, QB
- 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB
- 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB
The first thing you can notice quite easily is the frequency that quarterbacks win this award. Peterson is the only non-QB to win the award since LaDainian Tomlinson did so back in 2006. Why not visit the Official NFL resource here.
Best NFL MVP Betting predictions
It’s clear the best place to start with our MVP futures is at quarterback. It’s extremely unlikely that another player takes home the award.
MVP winners are almost exclusively found on the top teams in the league, so you’ll want to target a QB from a team you expect to have a strong 2021 season.
There’s also an element of ‘new’ in MVP voting. Past winners like Lamar Jackson and Mahomes took home the award because they were dominant, but also because they were fresh faces.
So, who to consider for the award this season?
Josh Allen: +1200
We’ll start with the quarterback who took a massive leap in his third season, Josh Allen. Allen led the Bills to a 13-3 record in 2020 and was the runner-up for MVP.
There’s every reason to believe Buffalo is only just getting started on a run of dominance in the AFC, and if they can take the top-seed away from Kansas City, Allen should be in a good position to win the award.
Allen always had a strong arm, but he dramatically improved his accuracy in 2020, aided by the addition of star receiver Stefon Diggs.
Factor in his rushing ability, and Allen could put up monster stats this coming season. Allen is a favorite for a good reason, and at +1200, it’s worthy value here.
Matthew Stafford: +1600
One of the most under-the-radar moves this offseason was the trade that the Los Angeles Rams made for Stafford.
Finally freed from the losing seasons in Detroit, Stafford joins the best team he’s ever been on. The Rams took down the Seahawks in the Wild Card round in 2020 and are just a few seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
LA has one of the best defenses in the league, strong playmakers on offense, and one of the NFL’s most creative play-callers in Sean McVay.
If the Rams take home the NFC West title, the toughest division in football, it will likely be because of Stafford.
Stafford has that ‘new’ feel, despite being a 12-year veteran. If the Rams take a massive leap in 2021, the clear difference-maker will be their upgrade at quarterback. Information like this is very useful when trying to predict what type of NFL MVP Betting method you should adopt.
Dak Prescott: +1700
Prescott has the ‘return-from-injury’ storyline that also helps an MVP campaign. If Prescott is fully recovered from the gruesome ankle injury he suffered at the beginning of 2020, then he seems poised for a big statistical season.
The Cowboys arguably have the best receiving corps in the league, strong running backs, and what should be a healthier offensive line.
In a weak NFC East, the Cowboys could pile up wins off their explosive offense. Prescott will be in the conversation if that occurs.