2021 NFL Betting News – NFC East Win Totals
If there is one thing we can say for certain about the NFC East in 2021, it’s that nothing about the coming season can be classified as certain.
That was the big takeaway from 2020 when seriously injured quarterbacks were the story. Dak Prescott went out with a compound fracture and dislocated ankle, effectively ending the Cowboys season. At the same time, Alex Smith returned from a double compound fracture and had 17 surgeries to lead the Washington Football Team to the division title.
Smith, last year’s Comeback Player of the Year, has now retired, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is there, joining his 38th NFL team. Prescott is back and healthy in Dallas and sporting a big new contract extension. The Eagles have an entirely new coaching staff, and the Carson Wentz era is officially over in Philadelphia. And it’s the return of Saquon Barkley in New York, as his 2020 was shortened to just two games because of a torn ACL.
It’s a collection of new faces, returning old faces, really old bearded faces, and the most unpredictable division race in the entire NFL.
Dallas Cowboys – 9.5 Wins
The return of Dak Prescott will make a huge difference for the Cowboys this season. But even if he’s just average, as long as Dallas doesn’t run out of the sieve of a defense that was their albatross in 2020, they’ll be fine. Five times last season, the Cowboys’ defense allowed 38 points or more, and in two of those losses, Dallas scored more than 30.
Reverting to the mean should fix some of the problems on defense. First-round pick Micah Parsons out of Penn State should fix others. In all, the Cowboys used their first six draft picks on defense, including five in the first three rounds.
Add in a much healthier offensive line and a return to productivity for Ezekiel Elliott, and this is a Dallas team that should be considerably better than the 6-10 from a year ago.
But will that lead to 10 wins or more?
Based on last year’s record, the Cowboys enter 2021 with the second easiest schedule in the league. Their opponents had just a .452 winning percentage in 2020 and finished a combined 26 games below .500.
The season starts rough, with road trips to Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Chargers. But four straight winnable games follow the first two, and the Cowboys could be 4-2 heading into their bye week.
There are a couple of other difficult games, like at Kansas City and home games against the Raiders and Cardinals. But this looks like a team capable of double-digit wins. Check out the BParlay.com NFL Parlay Betting guide to learn more about the sport.
Cowboys Pick: Over 9.5 wins
Washington Football Team – 8 Wins
It’s highly unlikely that Washington can defend their division title by finishing below .500, which is what happened last season. If they can get to eight wins, which, thanks to the new 17-game schedule, would still be a losing record, they will improve on their win total but miss the playoffs.
As good of a story as Alex Smith was in 2020, the quarterback situation in 2021 seems to be improved. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s time in Miami showed that he is still capable of leading a team, and certainly a team that has a defense as talented as Washington’s. There will be no shootouts with this team, even though WFT does have nice pieces on offense, like Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Antonio Gibson. Check out the official news page of the NFL for more information and news.
The defense was third in DVOA in 2020, and the talent appears to be even better this season. And it’s scary for the rest of the league to think that Chase Young is actually going to be improved in his second season.
Other than a home game against the Chargers, most of the challenging out-of-division matchups are on the road. WFT makes road trips to Kansas City, Buffalo, Green Bay, and Las Vegas. The final five games of the regular season are all against NFC East opponents, including both games with Dallas and Philadelphia. So if they are still in the race by the beginning of December, WFT could make a run.
WFT Pick: Push 8 wins
New York Giants – 7 Wins
In his second season, last year Giants quarterback Daniel Jones took a step backward. In 2019 in 12 starts, he threw for more than 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. In 2020 in 14 starts, he threw for less than 3,000 yards and just 11 touchdowns. A bad Jones and an injured Saquon Barkley had the Giants finishing 31st in the league in points scored.
The offense can and will be better this season. Barkley will be back and healthy, and the Giants have far better receivers for Jones to throw to. Kenny Golladay is the big receiver every quarterback dreams of. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton should be improved. John Ross has come over via free agency and will force defenses to defend the deep pass. Kyle Rudolph joins the tight end room. Playmaker Kadarius Toney comes to New York via the draft.
The defense was much improved in 2020, and it will still be good this season. And when coupled with the improvements that have been made on offense, this might be the most balanced team in the division.
The Giants need to get off to a good start because the end of the season will be tough. Starting the first week of December, they play four of five games on the road, making trips to Miami, the Chargers, Philadelphia, and Chicago. In the first half of the season, there are winnable games against the Broncos, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Raiders.
This schedule for the Giants comes with nine losses and six wins. That leaves two games that they must win in order to break seven wins, and with the combo of Barkley, Golladay, and Toney, they do it.
Giants Pick: Over 7 wins
Philadelphia Eagles – 6.5 Wins
Is Jalen Hurts really a franchise quarterback? Can Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith make an impact as a rookie? Is the largely unknown Nick Sirianni ready to be a head coach in the NFL? Can the offensive line find stability? (The Eagles started 14 different offensive line combinations in 2020.)
These questions, and many others, loom over a franchise that looks almost nothing like the team that beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Across the board, the Eagles were bad last year, ranking in the bottom-third in both points scored and points allowed. Surely they can be better than the four wins they eked out in 2020.
The easiest strength of schedule out of 32 NFL teams should help. Philadelphia’s 2021 opponents finished the 2020 season 38 games below .500. That number is a little inflated by games with the Niners and Jets, who will both be better than last year. But the Panthers, Lions, and Broncos are all possible wins.
One thing hurting the Eagles is a bye week that doesn’t come until mid-December. November is full of winnable games, but injuries and fatigue might cause them to lose one or two. Following their bye, they finish with four straight against the NFC East, ending with the Cowboys.
Eagles Pick: Under 6.5 wins
A Bad and Competitive Division
Like last year, this is going to be the most competitive division race in the NFL that no one wants to watch. Only one team, WFT, finished with a plus-point differential, and that was only six.
Ugly Week 17 games between Washington and Philadelphia and the Giants and Cowboys decided a playoff spot that no one truly deserved. Normally a final week deciding game has a national interest. These games induced yawns.
We will see better quality in the NFC East in 2021. Mostly because we simply have to. Last year really was that bad. But also because all four teams have improved their rosters and should improve their play.
The Cowboys are the favorites to win the division, paying +135 as the NFC East champs. If Dak blows up and the defense tightens its belt, and Dallas somehow manages to win the NFC, that bet pays +1400. A Super Bowl win for the Cowboys pays +3000.
Washington isn’t our pick to win the East, but oddsmakers don’t have them too far behind the Cowboys. A division title repeat pays +200, an NFC Championship pays +1800, and a Super Bowl win in D.C. will pay the lucky bettors +4000.
No one is being ruled out as possible division champion, with the Giants at +450 to win it. Although as the NFC Champions, they are paying +4000 and +8000 as Super Bowl winners. So perhaps they can sneak out a win in the division, but that’s where it ends.
The Eagles also have a chance to win the division and are paying +500. But at +5000 to win the NFC Championship Game and +10000 to win another Super Bowl, only diehard Eagles fans are going to make those bets.
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