NFL Betting in 2021 News – AFC East
In 11 of the last 12 seasons, a member of the AFC East has been in the AFC Championship. Sure, most of those appearances have been because of the Patriots dynasty. But at the beginning of the 2010s, it was the New York Jets making back-to-back AFCCG appearances, while the Buffalo Bills made it to within a game of the Super Bowl last season.
The AFC East might be the most wide-open race of any division in football, with reasons to feel optimistic for all four teams. Josh Allen is among the preseason MVP favorites, and the Bills are a postseason shoe-in. The Dolphins are coming off 10 wins in 2020, and in this year’s draft, they added the uber-fast Jaylen Waddle. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and Bill Belichick has declared an open quarterback competition between Cam Newton and Mac Jones. And the Jets have a new head coach in Robert Saleh and a new quarterback in Zach Wilson.
Three of the four teams have playoff hopes for 2021, and all three of those hopes are realistic. The Bills enter the season as the second favorite to win the AFC. Bookmakers also project the Dolphins to be in the playoffs and the Patriots to be right behind Miami. For New York, we’re still at least a year or two away.
Buffalo Bills – 11 Wins
No one took a bigger step forward last season than quarterback Josh Allen, who went from looking like a busted first-round draft pick to performing like an MVP. All but one receiver returns in 2021, as does his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, meaning that we might see Allen make even greater improvements this year.
Will that be enough to catch Kansas City? The Bills were talented enough last year to be a championship team, and perhaps if the AFCCG had been played in Buffalo, the outcome would have been different. As it was, the Bills led after the first quarter but gave up 21 points in the second quarter and never got within two scores of the lead. Check out the BParlay NFL Parlay Predictions on our dedicated tipster page for free.
The games this season most likely to determine if Buffalo can win home-field advantage and get the conference’s lone first-round bye is the Week 5 game in Kansas City on Sunday night. The winner there gets the tiebreaker. Also, the very next week, the Bills play a Monday night game at Tennessee.
There are also two challenging games to begin in December, with a game at home against the rival Patriots and then a trip south to Tampa to face longtime nemesis, Tom Brady. The seven-time Super Bowl champion is an unbelievable 32-3 in his career against the Bills. Check out the complete list of Super Bowl Winners here.
Bills Pick: Over 11 wins
Miami Dolphins – 9.5 Wins
A team in need of a Josh Allen-type jump forward is Miami, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The word is his arm looks to have more strength in practice as he gets further away from his hip injury in college. He also has all the speed he could possibly want on the outside, with former Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle coming via this year’s draft and Will Fuller signing in free agency.
Tua also no longer has the bearded one, Ryan Fitzpatrick, threatening to take away snaps. This is Tua’s team, sink or swim. Jacoby Brissett is there to be the backup and nothing more.
One concern as training camps break is the uncertain status of a defense that thrived last year because of the Defensive Player of the Year-quality of play from cornerback Xavien Howard. He finished third in voting last year behind T.J. Watt and DPOY winner Aaron Donald.
Howard wants a trade, and it doesn’t sound like he’s willing to change his mind. And that would be a blow to a team that is in year three of its rebuild and ready to take the next step forward.
In four of their first five games in 2021, the Dolphins face Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, and Tom Brady. All four have 4,000-yard seasons within the last two years, and all would pose a problem for an undermanned secondary.
Overall, however, it’s a favorable schedule. The Jets twice winnable games against the NFC’s Falcons, Panthers, Saints, and Giants. The Jaguars and Texans are also games Miami should be favored.
Dolphins Pick: Over 9.5 wins
New England Patriots – 9.5 Wins
Only a fool would underestimate the ability of Bill Belichick to make the most out of mediocrity and find a way to the playoffs. This year’s team on paper looks to be loads better than the 2020 Patriots, and somehow that team managed to win seven games.
And mind you, that was a team fresh off the loss of Tom Brady, besieged by COVID issues (both opt-outs and positive tests), and stuck with a quarterback who couldn’t throw the ball.
That quarterback is still in New England, but so are a whole lot of other players. Belichick was active in free agency like we’ve never seen him before, bringing in tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, and edge rusher Matthew Judon.
Other Patriots News
But if the Patriots can get to 10 wins and back into the playoffs, it will come down to which quarterback takes the ball to start the season, and will he be successful once he does? Cam Newton is not the MVP he used to be, and Patriots fans will not be happy to see him as the starter. But is rookie Mac Jones ready to lead a Josh McDaniels offense?
The Dolphins will provide a Week 1 test, but the Jets and Saints in Weeks 2 and 3 could be a good place for a rookie to get his feet wet. It’s a mild schedule overall, but the Browns, Chargers, Bucs, Titans, Colts, and Bills and Dolphins twice will leave them short of 10 wins.
Patriots Pick: Under 9.5 wins
New York Jets – 6 Wins
Adam Gase is gone in New York, finally, but he did leave the Jets with a parting present – two wins late last season that cost the team a chance to draft Trevor Lawrence. The Jets say it doesn’t matter, and they love their guy Zach Wilson. And that may be entirely true. But still… Wilson and Lawrence will spend their careers being compared to each other, and as a general rule, you never bet on the guy in the Jets uniform.
Maybe that’s all changed with Robert Saleh taking over the head coaching duties. This team does have some talent to put around Wilson. Corey Davis has come over from Tennessee and has the talent to be the WR1 the team is desperate for. Second-year left tackle Mekhi Becton is an elite talent who will help keep Wilson upright. They also drafted USC offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker with the 14th overall pick.
No question, this team will be improved. They have more talent, and they will play harder and smarter under Saleh. But this is a team that will be thrilled to win five games this season, which would be a step forward. This group’s sixth win won’t come until the 2022 regular season.
Jets Pick: Under 6 wins
The Odds Winds Blowing in the East
If all goes well this year and in the following years, this may end up being the division with the most talented quarterbacks in football.
Josh Allen was the seventh pick in 2018. Tua Tagovailoa was the fifth pick in 2020. And then this year, Zack Wilson was the second overall pick, and Mac Jones went to New England with the 15th pick.
Allen, as the dean of the division, is the favorite to win it. Buffalo is -155 to win the AFC East and is on the board at +575 to win the AFC Championship. A bet for the Bills to get back to the Super Bowl and finally win it is paying +1100.
The Miami Dolphins are listed at +325 to win the AFC East, +1400 to win the AFC Championship, and are paying +2650 on a Super Bowl-winning bet.
Bill Belichick is considered by many to be the best coach in NFL history, and if he’s able to carry the Patriots to a division title, it’s paying +330. An AFC Championship in New England is paying +1600, while a Super Bowl win is on the board at +2900.
Other NFL Betting in 2021 News
The rebuild in New York is just underway, so it will take a couple of years. In 2021 the Jets are +2000 to win the division. An AFC Championship bet on the Jets pays +5800. A Super Bowl win for the Jets would pay +8000. Only four NFL teams have worse Super Bowl odds – the Jaguars, Bengals, Lions, and Texans.
With one rookie for sure starting, and maybe a second, the third-highest MVP favorite leading another team. In contrast, a collegiate national champion leads the other, it’s going to be an exciting race in the AFC East.
