Welcome to the 2021 NFL Betting Guide
No division had three teams finish the 2020 season in positive point differential but the NFC West. And had the 2019 NFC Champion 49ers not been crushed by injuries for most of the season, it probably would have been all four teams. As it was, the 6-10 49ers lost 166 player games to injury (by far the most in the NFL) and still came within two touchdowns of a positive point differential.
The 49ers’ revenge tour following their Super Bowl loss never got started. But look for a healthier and better San Francisco in 2021.
The Seahawks were all about making “Russ cook” at the beginning of 2020, and cook he did. The first four weeks of the season, he threw for 322, 288, 315, and 360. But in the last four weeks of the year, he went 206, 121, 225, and 181, and Seattle fizzled out in the postseason. Which Seahawks offense will show up in 2021?
The Rams haven’t been the same since they lost to New England, 13-3, in the Super Bowl. But they were back in the playoffs last year, and now they have a new quarterback for 2021. Will Matthew Stafford win a playoff game now that he’s out of Detroit?
And will Kyler Murray continue to blossom in Arizona? Does J.J. Watt have anything left in the tank? Will an improved offensive line make the Cardinals a playoff team?
Of the eight divisions in football, the NFC West is the only place where all four teams have realistic postseason aspirations.
Los Angeles Rams – 10.5 Wins
The Rams were a wild card team a year ago, and with the addition of Matthew Stafford, many in L.A. feel like they are back in the NFC title hunt. Losing running back Cam Akers to a preseason Achilles injury hurts, but the effectiveness of this offense will all come down to Stafford and head coach Sean McVay.
The defense still has the most dominant player in the NFL, Aaron Donald. But there is a new defensive coordinator in town, Raheem Morris, who was with McVay in Washington. The hire is good, but the decision to stick with the system that Brandon Staley used (he’s now the Chargers head coach) is puzzling.
One concern is the Rams offensive line. Andrew Whitworth is a great left tackle, but he’s going to turn 40 during the season. Counting on him to make it to the season’s end is an iffy proposition. When he went down in 2020, the offense changed. A similar scenario this year is easy to imagine.
The Rams will start the season at home on Sunday night against the Bears. Then it’s the Colts, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Seahawks. That stretch will set the tone for the season. After two division games and two games against potential playoff teams, if L.A. looks good, they may be in for a deep postseason run.
There are games against the Packers, Ravens, and Titans, and of course, two games with the 49ers – including the final game of the season in Los Angeles. But this is a very winnable schedule and could result in a division championship.
Rams Pick: Over 10.5 wins
San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 Wins
Conventional wisdom is that the 49ers season will rise and fall on the back of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the early going and Trey Lance later on. Or if Jimmy G plays well all season long, we don’t see Lance until 2022.
Definitely, the quarterback position is important in San Francisco. But other than the Browns and maybe the Ravens, no team needs to lean on their running game like the Niners. Raheem Mostert is there, but now there is also Trey Sermon after he was drafted out of Ohio State.
Kyle Shanahan is a master schemer of run plays, and he only picked Sermon because he has a number of plays in mind just for him. If Sermon can prove to be a good compliment to Mostert and Jeff Wilson, this offense can cover for only average play at quarterback.
The other big addition is the return of Nick Bosa, out since Week 2 last year. When he is healthy and rushing the passer with effectiveness, all levels of the 49ers’ defense click.
The 49ers benefit from the last place schedule and the out-of-conference matchups against the AFC South. That gives them games against the Jags, Texans, Falcons, Lions, Eagles, Bengals, and Bears. That is not a challenging task.
Tougher matchups include the Packers and Colts and the six games inside the division. But those won’t be enough to keep San Francisco from getting to 11 wins. Check out our recommended NFL Picks and Parlays suggestions below:
49ers Pick: Over 10.5 wins
Seattle Seahawks – 9.5 Wins
You wouldn’t think the defending division champions with one of the best quarterbacks in football would need to have a big offseason to remain a betting favorite, but that is what has happened with Seattle. The Seahawks won 12 games last year and won the ultra-competitive NFC West. But even though Russell Wilson is expected to be great again, the Seahawks as a team are not.
They are the third betting favorite in the division, and if they are to make it to the playoffs as a wild card, it will only be by the skin of their teeth.
The offensive line isn’t great, and it didn’t do much to get better. They only had three draft picks, so naturally, the overall impact of those picks is expected to be minimal, if at all. Seattle’s only pick in the top-100 was used on wide receiver D’Wayne Eskridge, which wasn’t a position of need.
Getting better in the secondary was a priority, based on the 2020 play. But it was only addressed with depth pieces and no real upgrades. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Seattle because on paper, they are blah, but on the field, they have Russell Wilson.
Games at Green Bay, at Washington, at Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at Indianapolis, and home against the Saints are the most challenging on the schedule outside of the division. And that division is better than last season. With a healthy 49ers team and better teams in L.A. and Arizona, Seattle doesn’t make it to double-digit wins.
Seahawks Pick: Under 9.5 wins
Arizona Cardinals – 8 Wins
The relationship between head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray, and their continued growth as an offensive duo, is what gets the headlines in Arizona. But the biggest impact on the field is going to be from the new defensive faces Arizona added this offseason.
J.J. Watt is now on the defensive line, and Malcolm Butler is at cornerback. Rookie Zaven Collins is added to the linebackers, and expectations for his performance are high. If this defense really does improve over the fairly solid unit they were a year ago, even if Murray hits a plateau, the Cardinals will be better.
This is a good team and will be super fun to watch, but they face a challenging schedule, beginning with a Week 1 game at Tennessee and Derrick Henry. Add in Julio Jones, and the Cardinals begin 2021 with a loss.
Then it’s the Vikings and Patrick Peterson’s revenge game, three straight against the Rams, 49ers, and Browns, a Thursday game with Green Bay, Christmas night against the Colts, and a season-ending tilt against Seattle.
Cardinals Pick: Push 8 wins
The Deepest Division in Football – NFL Betting
There are all kinds of bad bets that you can place on NFL teams. But when taking a look at the NFC West and the talent that is there from top to bottom, there may be no bad bets.
The Rams are paying +190 to win the division and are just behind the Bucs and Packers to win the NFC at +650. And the +1400 they are paying for a Super Bowl win is tied for the fourth-best odds in the NFL. No bad bets.
The 49ers, with an identical line to the Rams for projected win total, has the exact same betting odds as well – +190 to win the NFC West, +650 to win the NFC Championship, and +1400 to win the Super Bowl. It’s worth noting that when San Francisco went to the Super Bowl two years ago, they opened at +1400 to win the NFC. For more upto date information on the 49ers Football team we recommend reviewing the official 49ers news page.
While the Seahawks have the quarterback to win the Super Bowl, oddsmakers like their chances less. Seattle is paying +275 to win the division, +1000 to win the conference, and +2500 to win the Super Bowl. Still, with the pedigree of this team, none of those are bad bets.
Finally, it’s Arizona. They are expected to finish last in the division because someone has to finish last. Although put them in the NFC East, and it might be a different story. They are paying +600 to win the West, +2500 to win the NFC, and +4000 to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
