With the NFL season just around the corner, we have some very interesting betting strategies that have been successful over recent years. Each NFL Betting Strategy will break down what bet you need to follow.
NFL Betting Strategy #1
Bet on Division Dogs
Betting on division dogs in week 1 of the NFL season is going to give you a better chance of a high return. Stats show that sportsbooks generally use last seasons results to work out who the favorite team will be. However, as new players have been transferred into each team and nobody really knows how each other will play the dogs chances of winning is increased. As the season develops the dogs have less of a chance of winning as teams constantly analyze their plays and figure out their weaknesses.
Since 2014 division dogs have succeeded against the favorites showing the stats below:
- 17-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS)
- 11-10-1 Straight Up (SU)
Week one division dogs in the 2019/20 NFL Season are highlighted in bold:
- Greenbay Packers @ Chicago Bears – Sep 5th – 8:20 pm ET
- Washington RedSkins @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sep 8th – 1:00 pm ET
- Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets – Sep 8th – 1:00 pm ET
- New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys – Sep 8th – 4:25 pm ET
- Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders – Sep 9th – 10:20 am ET
Due to the number of underdogs in strategy #1 you either place them as individual bets or place a parlay. We recommend placing a Round Robin parlay bet on the RedSkins, Jets and Giants as they are on the same day so it makes the bet more exciting. For more information on Round Robin Parlays click on the links.
See the NJ Sportsbooks offering Round Robin Parlay bets below.
NFL Betting Strategy #2
Teams on the Road for the 2nd Straight Week
Since 2015 the teams that have been on the road on week 1 and week 2 generally have a poor success rate as they have had to play an opening game in front of a large opposition crowd that is ready and excited for the new season. To make things more difficult the team has to stay on the road and possibly play against a team that is playing their first home game of the season. Also, they haven’t had the facilities to spend good time on the training ground to work on offensive and defensive plays.
The team that is playing on the road in week 1 and week 2 in the 2019/20 NFL Season are highlighted in bold:
- San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sept 15th – 1:00 pm ET
- Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants – Sept 15th – 1:00 pm ET
- Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans – Sept 15th – 1:00 pm ET
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders – Sept 15th – 4:05 pm ET
We recommend placing a Parlay bet on 49ers, Bills and Colts. For the best Parlay offers see the online Sportsbooks available in NJ below.
NFL Betting Strategy #3
Play on a Home Dog off a Straight Up Loss
This NFL Betting strategy is best to use in weeks 2 and 3. Previous stats show that underdogs came in 13-11 straight up and 18-6 against the spread when betting them at home after a loss.
If you also make this bet more specific to home underdogs that lost their previous game with a low total of 43 or less then the stats come in at 12-0 against the spread.
NFL Betting Strategy #4
This strategy is also one to use after the opening game and during weeks 2-4.
NFL Home Team Off a Loss IF in their Last Game they Rushed for Under 50 Yards
The stats in recent times have shown that you should bet against teams playing at home off a loss in their last game, if and only if they failed to rush over 50 yards.
- 6-13 Straight Up (SU)
- 3-16 Against The Spread (ATS)
The team will possibly have offensive issues or a young quarterback that is still finding his feet in the regular season allowing them to make short distances throughout the game. The sportsbooks may have them as favorites as they will be playing at home however the opponent will have analyzed their weaknesses and picked out why they are not rushing over 50 yards and will exploit this weakness.
So there you have it, our four NFL Betting Strategies for the start of the NFL 2019/20 Season. We will be backing these ourselves and looking for the teams you should bet with and against in strategies 3 and 4. Hopefully, the trends continue this year and we can get off to a great start.