What a difference a year makes. Last year the NFC South belonged to the Saints, as we weren’t sure exactly what Tom Brady’s move to Tampa would mean for the Bucs. The best wide receiver in the division belonged to the Falcons and perhaps the best wide receiver in all of football. We were also anxious to see what Teddy Bridgewater would do with new Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
One year later, Drew Brees is gone, and the Saints are one huge mystery with all kinds of quarterback questions yet to be answered. We now know exactly what Tom Brady’s move means for the Bucs – it means they enter the 2021 season as the favorites to win the NFC. Julio Jones is also gone, but Atlanta hasn’t really embraced a rebuild just yet. And now it’s Sam Darnold that we are anxious to see teamed up with Rhule and Brady.
This is a division without much of a race. Provided they stay healthy and Tom Brady saves his drinking for victory boat parades only, the Bucs should win this division going away. Beyond that, however, it’s going to be interesting.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11.5 Wins
Tom Brady has been playing professional football since the AFL-NFL merger (it seems), and he’s been winning just as long. So we’ll skip reciting his resume for the 10,000th time. Suffice it to say, it’s good.
What is most impressive about the Bucs team that will take the field in 2021 is that it will feature every single Super Bowl starter. The entire team is back for another run at a ring, and bookmakers are believers. No one in the NFC has a higher projected win total than the Bucs.
The defense that made life miserable for Patrick Mahomes is back. The wide receiver group is still one of the very best in football. O.J. Howard is coming back from a torn Achilles, giving a tight end group that has Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brake even more depth. And offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich can run both Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette as featured backs.
As the Super Bowl champs, the Bucs kick off the season at home on Thursday night against the Cowboys. If Dak Prescott is healthy, it will be a great way for the season to begin.
The schedule as a whole isn’t easy. The Dolphins and Bills are tough, and New England will be on fire when Brady returns in Week 4. There are also tough road games at Washington and Indianapolis. But being able to beat up on inferior talent in the division will push the Bucs to 12 total wins.
Buccaneers Pick: Over 11.5 wins
New Orleans Saints – 9 Wins
Everyone not named Tom Brady gets old and eventually retires, and that finally happened to one of the best quarterbacks to ever play in Drew Brees. For the first time since 2005, the Saints will not begin the season with Brees as their QB1. And even more troubling, the Saints don’t really know who that quarterback will be.
They have Jameis Winston, an actual NFL quarterback. But they have more money invested in Taysom Hill (his salary is 3x larger than Winston), who was a starting quarterback many years ago in college but has been just a gadget player in the NFL.
Winston did ignominiously throw for 30 interceptions in 2019. That’s a big number for most of the NFL to get past. But Hill just passed 1,000 career yards passing last season, and he fumbled the ball ten times on limited touches. Michael Thomas is expected to begin the season, still out after June ankle surgery, so whichever quarterback wins the job, he’ll be missing the best weapon on the team.
Alvin Kamara is still one of the best players in football, but he’s about it on offense. Points are going to be at a premium, and the schedule is not kind.
New Orleans begins against loaded Green Bay and also visits the great defense in Washington before they hit the bye. The Seahawks, Titans, Bills, Dolphins, and Cowboys are all tough matchups, and of course, they play two games against Tampa Bay.
Saints Pick: Under 9 wins
Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 Wins
The Falcons are one of the most interesting teams headed in the 2021 season. Quarterback Matt Ryan is aging, but he can still sling it with the best of them. They also added the most talked-about weapon available in the draft, tight end, Kyle Pitts. They also have a new head coach, Arthur Smith; the man credited when turning the Titans into a contender.
But the team was willing to move future Hall of Fame wide receiver Julio Jones after he became unhappy and wanted out. Calvin Ridley showed last season that he can be a great WR1, but who is going to step up behind him? The defense also wasn’t very good last year (they blew two 15-point fourth-quarter leads in consecutive weeks), and almost nothing was done to make it better this year.
The easiest part of the schedule is at the beginning. Three of Atlanta’s first four games are against the NFC East, and then they get the Jets. But two games with the Bucs and trips to Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, and San Francisco makes the effort to make one more run with Ryan feel futile.
Even with the extra game on the schedule, getting to eight wins seems like a tall order. Pitts and Ridley will be fun to watch, but the rest of the team has too many holes. Learn about NFL Point totals with our handy betting guide.
Falcons Pick: Under 7.5 wins
Carolina Panthers – 7.5 Wins
Is Sam Darnold the quarterback that was worthy of the third overall pick in 2018? Or is he the quarterback that spent three seasons struggling with the Jets?
Of course, the caveat is that his last two years with the Jets were with Adam Gase, so maybe none of those years should be held against him. Peyton Manning’s praise of Gase notwithstanding, Gase was not a good head coach in either Miami or New York, and the quarterback play under him was terrible.
In Carolina, Darnold will share a backfield with Christian McCaffrey, who is worlds better than anyone in New York. CMC is back from the injuries that limited him to three games last season and is ready to explode in 2021.
The offensive line isn’t considerably better in Carolina, but weapons like Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore definitely are. And Joe Brady calling the offensive plays is a huge step up for Darnold.
Darnold was given the opportunity to fail in New York, and he did. In Carolina, he will be given the opportunity to succeed. If he can, Carolina could be one of the surprise teams of 2021. They were a disappointing 5-11 in 2020, but that included one-score losses to the Packers, Chiefs, Saints, and Bears – all four playoff teams.
In 2021 the season starts off perfectly, with Darnold facing his old team, the Jets. Then it’s games against the Saints and Texans before a trip to Dallas. It’s a good first quarter of the schedule, and at worst, this looks like a 2-2 start.
Challenging trips to Miami, Buffalo, and Arizona, and two games with the Bucs will keep the Panthers hype train in check. They should get to seven wins, but it’s hard to find that eighth win to hit the over.
Panthers Pick: Under 7.5 wins
The Ageing and the Ageless
How much does a 36-year-old Matt Ryan have left in Atlanta? Does he have another Super Bowl run in him before the Falcons cut bait and officially turn the page?
How much more does a 44-year-old Tom Brady have in him? He followed up his win in Super Bowl XXXVIII by returning the very next year. After winning Super Bowl LI over the Falcons, he returned in each of the next two seasons, losing to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII and winning against the Rams in SB LIII.
Don’t bet against him to make it back for the 11th time. The Bucs are huge favorites to win the NFC South, paying -175. They are +250 to repeat as NFC Champions and +600 to win the Super Bowl.
The Saints enter the 2021 season at +300 to win the NFC South. At +1200 to win the NFC, they are the sixth-highest favorite, just behind the Seahawks and in front of the Cowboys. A Super Bowl bet on New Orleans pays +2500.
We will be watching Kyle Pitts this season, but probably not in the postseason. Atlanta pays +850 to win the division, +3000 to win the NFC Championship, and +8000 to win Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.
Sam Darnold and the Panthers are just behind them, paying +900 to win the NFC South, +3500 to win the NFC, and +8000 to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
