BParlay.com have compiled this handy 2021 NCAA Football Betting guide covering Big Ten Win Totals.
The Big Ten is full of second and third-tier teams, with Ohio State clearly out in front, and this dynamic makes it one of the harder conferences to sort out when it comes to win totals because there will be PLENTY of single-digit spreads and upsets in this conference. We need to identify spots that have a lot of outs when looking over the schedules of these teams to determine the best spots.
Ohio State Over 11 (-115)
This number doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, to be honest. One of the best ways to take advantage of Vegas in futures bets is to bet on things that you have confidence in. That is what I am doing with Ohio State and the talent here. Ohio State has three 5-star QBs, the best receiving group in the country (by a lot), a top 2 offensive line, and so many talented players that we have never seen play.
The unknown with these elite teams is almost better than the known in some cases. That goes for the Buckeyes here. Ohio State’s recruiting in the last two years has been very, very impressive, and I expect maybe even five true freshmen to be real contributors at positions like DE and RB. There is a BUNCH of elite recruits on this roster just waiting to pop and one of the best offenses in the history of modern football on paper.
The beginning schedule at Minnesota and vs. Oregon isn’t ideal, but you are taking a team that will be over a touchdown favorite in every game this season. You could definitely find a push, but I find two losses very hard to come by.
Illinois Over 3.5 (-140)
The Fighting Illini are dealing with a coaching change, but that is probably an upgrade when it comes to pure coaching in this situation, as the last staff just wasn’t great at developing talent even when they got talented players and utilizing their best players. I don’t love this team, but they do have more talent, and they will play slow. There aren’t a bunch of juggernauts on the schedule. Check out our official BParlay NFL Parlay Picks each week for our free betting tips.
They should have two easy wins and then games vs. Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern in games that are all at least winnable. We need 2-4 for the over, and heck, this team beat Wisconsin the last time that they visited Champaign.
Indiana Under 7.5 (-115)
This is a tough one for me because 7.5 isn’t even that high for the hype this team has seen. That being said, I think that they are just too many landmines for this team. Indiana clearly benefited from the strange circumstances that caused a lot of chaos for other Big Ten East powers. Michigan and Penn State are both better than Indiana. Ohio State is way better. I like Cincinnati vs. Indiana as well.
At that point, they have to beat Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers without slipping up and all of those teams have the requisite talent to make it a game. I think that we could see some fragility if they do struggle against these other powers because of their expectations.
Northwestern Over 6 (-110)
I think that the Wildcats could *very easily* start 6-0 and just need one more game. Heck, they’d probably be ranked at that point. You would get some nice numbers betting against them the rest of the season. They could lose to someone like Duke, Michigan State, or Nebraska, but I don’t expect them to. This culture is elite, and they brought in former 5-star QB Ryan Hilinski.
I don’t expect Hilinski to set the world on fire, but I do expect him to be good enough to win football games, and this schedule is pretty soft. Northwestern does a great job at developing players and executing a game plan, regardless of opponent, and they are just not playing a lot of teams that can out talent them. Placing a wager with an NCAA Football betting strategy is always a recommended piece of advise from the BParlay.com team.
Take a look at the schedule and tell me if there are ANY teams that Northwestern can’t beat this season. I don’t see any. Sure, they will be a big underdog at Michigan and Wisconsin, but are they 22-point underdogs? No. This is pretty simple to me, especially with the soft early schedule.
Teams to watch – 2021 NCAA Football Betting Tips
Penn State Over 9
If Penn State didn’t struggle in recruiting in 2021, I would be more comfortable on relying on this program, similar to Ohio State. The early game at Wisconsin has me scared of getting started off on the wrong foot, but this team shouldn’t lose four games this season.
Michigan Under 7.5
This is another one where recruiting just isn’t anywhere close to Michigan 3 years ago. They are no longer bringing in a bunch of future NFL guys, and they weren’t that successful then. They made a lot of coaching changes in an effort to spice up their recruiting efforts, but does that mean their staff doesn’t have a ton of coaching experience?
Yes, it does, and those recruits they are there to recruit aren’t at Michigan yet. I’d be surprised if we saw them return to the 10-2 team they’ve been in the past, and I would not be surprised by a complete collapse. The 2021 NCAA Football Betting tips we provide are carefully considered by our team of betting guru’s. Please feel free to use our tips freely and subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date.
Other Conference Bets
Ohio State will win the East division, but -400 is a lot, especially when it was available at -200 months ago. I wouldn’t mind if you used it as a futures parlay, but it’s a stay away as a bet outright.
Dart throws on Minnesota and Northwestern are definitely in the cards in the West. Wisconsin wasn’t dominant last season. Iowa has a lot of problems at QB that could obliterate their season if they lost the starter.
Ohio State is -200 to win the Big Ten, and this is another good bet on the Buckeyes. They would likely have to lose two conference games to miss out on the championship game. Barring a team like Penn State going 11-1 and beating Ohio State or something along those lines.
Whichever West team gets there will likely be over +500 to win that game. You could hedge out with ease if you were really worried about them pulling through at that point.
The conference really does not have Heisman candidates that are viable outside of CJ Stroud, who is my favorite Heisman bet at his odds. Could one of Olave or Wilson get hurt like Jaylen Waddle did last year and lead to a Heisman campaign?
I guess, but the Buckeyes have 6 or 7 receivers in their room that they think will be top 75 overall draft picks. I think the targets would be distributed too well to get Smith-level volume. That concludes the BParlay 2021 NCAA Football Betting guide for now.